Krunchie's
Krunchie with Yachts
Tuesday, 14 June 2022
Friday, 18 December 2015
What have they done to Buy to Let?
I read in Davy's early morning briefing today that Buy-to-let lending fell by 8.1% the first three quarters of 2015.
Meanwhile, the number of homeless in Dublin almost doubled during the year.
One serious factor in the decline in availability of rented accommodation is the ban on bed-sits, which became effective in February 2013,
The purpose of the ban was to improve living conditions. The effect of the ban was to remove the most affordable rented accommodation from the market, to reduce the number of units available for letting, to put a brake on rent-to-buy, and to increase homelessness.
The taxpayer had to pay for emergency accommodation instead.
In addition, many citizens who had invested in "a second property" instead of putting money into a pension fund have effectively lost their pension pot.
Meanwhile, the number of homeless in Dublin almost doubled during the year.
One serious factor in the decline in availability of rented accommodation is the ban on bed-sits, which became effective in February 2013,
The purpose of the ban was to improve living conditions. The effect of the ban was to remove the most affordable rented accommodation from the market, to reduce the number of units available for letting, to put a brake on rent-to-buy, and to increase homelessness.
The taxpayer had to pay for emergency accommodation instead.
In addition, many citizens who had invested in "a second property" instead of putting money into a pension fund have effectively lost their pension pot.
Tuesday, 6 October 2015
Flat Income Tax - Fair Play to Renua
Fair Play to Renua for promising Flat Income Tax. As you know, it was already in my Manifesto. It will be a hard sell, but is a good policy.
Saturday, 11 April 2015
Buy Oil Now
We had a tongue-twister riddle, when I was young, that went like this: "If a gumboil could boil oil, how much oil would a gumboil boil, if a gumboil could boil oil?"
The riddle would make sense if we changed "gumboil" to "gum-buyer." Then the riddle would say: "If a gum-buyer could buy oil, how much oil would the gum-buyer buy?"
In our present world, China is the gum-buyer. She has a huge surplus of cash, having had trade surpluses for many years. She has, in recent years, been busily buying up land, mines and minerals in Africa, Australia and other places. The rising value of the US Dollar has increased her wealth.
At the present moment in time, there is a surplus of oil in the world and oil prices are very low. In previous times, when this happened, Saudi Arabia cut back on oil production, to press the oil-price upwards. At present, however, the Saudis have decided to keep pumping the oil, in order to put high-cost producers, including the American shale-oil producers, out of business.
If I were the gum-buyer at this point in time, I would use my reserves of US Dollars to buy oil, before the Dollar falls and the oil rises. Pretty obvious, really. The secondary benefit would be in trade from shoring up its trading partner, the USA.
There would be two ways of buying the oil. The first is to buy current oil and put it into storage. The second would be to buy forward for future delivery - but perhaps the second would not be on the table for our Chinese.
I wonder if Ireland has any way of storing significant quantities of oil, now while the price is right!
The riddle would make sense if we changed "gumboil" to "gum-buyer." Then the riddle would say: "If a gum-buyer could buy oil, how much oil would the gum-buyer buy?"
In our present world, China is the gum-buyer. She has a huge surplus of cash, having had trade surpluses for many years. She has, in recent years, been busily buying up land, mines and minerals in Africa, Australia and other places. The rising value of the US Dollar has increased her wealth.
At the present moment in time, there is a surplus of oil in the world and oil prices are very low. In previous times, when this happened, Saudi Arabia cut back on oil production, to press the oil-price upwards. At present, however, the Saudis have decided to keep pumping the oil, in order to put high-cost producers, including the American shale-oil producers, out of business.
If I were the gum-buyer at this point in time, I would use my reserves of US Dollars to buy oil, before the Dollar falls and the oil rises. Pretty obvious, really. The secondary benefit would be in trade from shoring up its trading partner, the USA.
There would be two ways of buying the oil. The first is to buy current oil and put it into storage. The second would be to buy forward for future delivery - but perhaps the second would not be on the table for our Chinese.
I wonder if Ireland has any way of storing significant quantities of oil, now while the price is right!
Saturday, 28 March 2015
Ireland at the Centre of the Earth with TTIP
When I was 12, on my first year in secondary school, faced with an exam question on the geographic location of Ireland, I was struck with a flash of inspiration, and I wrote:
"Ireland is at the centre of the earth."
Mr Mackey gave me zero marks for this reply, and wrote in the margin: " I don't know what you were thinking."
This may be because he neglected to read the rest of my answer, which was somewhat as follows: "The world is shaped like a ball. You can choose any place you like as the centre of (the surface of) a ball. The current attitude that Ireland is a peripheral place off the west coast of (a central) Europe underlies our poor economic performance. If we, instead, were to regard Ireland as centrally located between Europe and the Americas, we could become a prosperous hub of world trade."
This was 1955. Ireland had been in an economic depression for 30 years and the prospect for most of my schoolmates was the emigrant ship. The railways were being closed, people were just locking their homes and leaving.
An idea like mine is taken from the ether - the sphere of consciousness that surrounds the earth. Fortunately for Ireland, another person was grasping the same idea from the ether: T K Whitaker was an up-and-coming economist in the Department of Finance. He put forward the view that Ireland should forsake its protectionist economic policies and open up to trade. The result was our First Programme for Economic Expansion (1957) which brought the first period of growth for forty years. The changed attitude lead ultimately to the Celtic Tiger.
Now we are looking forward to the prospect of a trade agreement between Europe and USA (the "Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership" under negotiation) which will enable Ireland to be truly a hub of trade between the two continents, fulfilling the vision of St Columkille (of the 6th century, supposedly surviving in a manuscript of the 11th century, translated and printed in USA in the mid 19th century) that:
In Columkille's day, Ireland was "a land of Saints and Scholars" and a prosperous hub of learning and trade serving the whole of Europe. He predicted the coming of the Vikings, and then the conquest by a foreign power that would last 700 years, before liberation and the return of prosperity. There was no sign of prosperity in the 1950s, and not until we made ourselves again a centre of trade and learning.
Reggio, Calabria, Italy, reminds me of Dublin in the 1950s
Last November, I visited Reggio in the south of Italy. It reminded me of Ireland in the fifties, and I found that they held onto the same regressive attitude: that they were a peripheral, forgotten region (of Italy). Despite having a sea-front promenade identified as "the most beautiful kilometre in Italy," and many other potential attractions, the official website proclaimed it as a place to visit only on your way to someplace else (e.g., Sicily).
Like Ireland, Calabria has a long history of emigration, and has a diaspora in many of the same countries as we. We found, among people with whom we chatted, a similar pattern of relatives in America and Australia as our own.
There is some hope for the future of Reggio. In the nineties, they had a period of development called "The Reggio Spring," under a charismatic Mayor, (Italo Falcomata) when the seafront promenade was magnificently upgraded and many improvements wrought.
However, the reforms were only half-baked, neglecting to take on the random parking and haphazard building, and running up debt. For example, an extensive car-park was built behind the main train station, which should have allowed the piazza in front of the station to revert to being a glamorous piazza. The official car-park remains empty and the piazza clogged with cars.
Then the recession came; and now the whole country is sinking under the weight of government debt and a deluge of refugees from Syria and Africa.
But, there is an incipient spirit of revival, a movement for community development and a new intelligentsia emerging from its new universities. The grip of the Mafia and the church needs to be loosened and individual enterprise allowed to prosper. I heard of people who in previous years tried to make a difference who were asked to leave and then disappeared never to be seen again.
Pope Francis, the last pope according to St Malachy, who came not from the centre of the earth but the end of the earth, did not baulk at visiting Calabria - a few months before me - and denouncing not only the Mafia but the church's wealth machine.
While I was there, the election of a new Mayor took place, the office having been suspended for several years due to financial irregularities and overspending. There were around 40 candidates, but only 4 or 5 real contenders. The most eye-catching poster proclaimed "Bastad Immigranti," (which means "Stop Immigrants"). Others cribbed about bin-charges and other aspects of austerity, but I favoured the candidate whose poster simply said "Falcomata for Reggio." After all, if you want to protest about austerity measures, you can take part in a street protest or write a letter to the papers. What has that to do with being Mayor of a city, a job that requires you to do your best to run the city? Being against immigrants or repressive taxes shows no intention whatsoever to focus on good government.
My chosen candidate, Giuseppe Falcomata, was successful. The new mayor is a son of the mayor who brought about the Reggio Spring.
Random parking of cars and haphazard development indicate that the reforms of the Reggio Spring did not go far enough. Instead of parking in the new, empty, car parks behind the main train station, for example, parked cars continue to clog the roads in front of the station. The randomness of apartment building indicates either an incompetent or a corrupt planning regime. Compare this to Estapona in Spain, also to be found in Krunchie's World, where local government is excellent and everything in proper order.
Supporters outside Falcomata's constituency office waiting for the results of the Mayoral election (which were delayed because of a re-count). Note: all men; women tend not to involve themselves visibly in politics or business.
Krunchie with Niamh and Teresa outside Falcomata's constituency office.
I just mention Reggio as an area that reminds me of the Ireland in which I was brought up, where the feelings of peripherallity and backwardness held us back, until we changed our attitude and realised we could be the centre of the earth.
"Ireland is at the centre of the earth."
Mr Mackey gave me zero marks for this reply, and wrote in the margin: " I don't know what you were thinking."
This may be because he neglected to read the rest of my answer, which was somewhat as follows: "The world is shaped like a ball. You can choose any place you like as the centre of (the surface of) a ball. The current attitude that Ireland is a peripheral place off the west coast of (a central) Europe underlies our poor economic performance. If we, instead, were to regard Ireland as centrally located between Europe and the Americas, we could become a prosperous hub of world trade."
This was 1955. Ireland had been in an economic depression for 30 years and the prospect for most of my schoolmates was the emigrant ship. The railways were being closed, people were just locking their homes and leaving.
An idea like mine is taken from the ether - the sphere of consciousness that surrounds the earth. Fortunately for Ireland, another person was grasping the same idea from the ether: T K Whitaker was an up-and-coming economist in the Department of Finance. He put forward the view that Ireland should forsake its protectionist economic policies and open up to trade. The result was our First Programme for Economic Expansion (1957) which brought the first period of growth for forty years. The changed attitude lead ultimately to the Celtic Tiger.
Now we are looking forward to the prospect of a trade agreement between Europe and USA (the "Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership" under negotiation) which will enable Ireland to be truly a hub of trade between the two continents, fulfilling the vision of St Columkille (of the 6th century, supposedly surviving in a manuscript of the 11th century, translated and printed in USA in the mid 19th century) that:
"Ireland will be prosperous again. No other country on the face of the earth will be more prosperous than she."
In Columkille's day, Ireland was "a land of Saints and Scholars" and a prosperous hub of learning and trade serving the whole of Europe. He predicted the coming of the Vikings, and then the conquest by a foreign power that would last 700 years, before liberation and the return of prosperity. There was no sign of prosperity in the 1950s, and not until we made ourselves again a centre of trade and learning.
Reggio, Calabria, Italy, reminds me of Dublin in the 1950s
Last November, I visited Reggio in the south of Italy. It reminded me of Ireland in the fifties, and I found that they held onto the same regressive attitude: that they were a peripheral, forgotten region (of Italy). Despite having a sea-front promenade identified as "the most beautiful kilometre in Italy," and many other potential attractions, the official website proclaimed it as a place to visit only on your way to someplace else (e.g., Sicily).
Like Ireland, Calabria has a long history of emigration, and has a diaspora in many of the same countries as we. We found, among people with whom we chatted, a similar pattern of relatives in America and Australia as our own.
There is some hope for the future of Reggio. In the nineties, they had a period of development called "The Reggio Spring," under a charismatic Mayor, (Italo Falcomata) when the seafront promenade was magnificently upgraded and many improvements wrought.
However, the reforms were only half-baked, neglecting to take on the random parking and haphazard building, and running up debt. For example, an extensive car-park was built behind the main train station, which should have allowed the piazza in front of the station to revert to being a glamorous piazza. The official car-park remains empty and the piazza clogged with cars.
Then the recession came; and now the whole country is sinking under the weight of government debt and a deluge of refugees from Syria and Africa.
But, there is an incipient spirit of revival, a movement for community development and a new intelligentsia emerging from its new universities. The grip of the Mafia and the church needs to be loosened and individual enterprise allowed to prosper. I heard of people who in previous years tried to make a difference who were asked to leave and then disappeared never to be seen again.
Pope Francis, the last pope according to St Malachy, who came not from the centre of the earth but the end of the earth, did not baulk at visiting Calabria - a few months before me - and denouncing not only the Mafia but the church's wealth machine.
While I was there, the election of a new Mayor took place, the office having been suspended for several years due to financial irregularities and overspending. There were around 40 candidates, but only 4 or 5 real contenders. The most eye-catching poster proclaimed "Bastad Immigranti," (which means "Stop Immigrants"). Others cribbed about bin-charges and other aspects of austerity, but I favoured the candidate whose poster simply said "Falcomata for Reggio." After all, if you want to protest about austerity measures, you can take part in a street protest or write a letter to the papers. What has that to do with being Mayor of a city, a job that requires you to do your best to run the city? Being against immigrants or repressive taxes shows no intention whatsoever to focus on good government.
My chosen candidate, Giuseppe Falcomata, was successful. The new mayor is a son of the mayor who brought about the Reggio Spring.
Random parking of cars and haphazard development indicate that the reforms of the Reggio Spring did not go far enough. Instead of parking in the new, empty, car parks behind the main train station, for example, parked cars continue to clog the roads in front of the station. The randomness of apartment building indicates either an incompetent or a corrupt planning regime. Compare this to Estapona in Spain, also to be found in Krunchie's World, where local government is excellent and everything in proper order.
Supporters outside Falcomata's constituency office waiting for the results of the Mayoral election (which were delayed because of a re-count). Note: all men; women tend not to involve themselves visibly in politics or business.
Krunchie with Niamh and Teresa outside Falcomata's constituency office.
I just mention Reggio as an area that reminds me of the Ireland in which I was brought up, where the feelings of peripherallity and backwardness held us back, until we changed our attitude and realised we could be the centre of the earth.
Friday, 9 January 2015
Abolish Criminal Law
There was no Criminal Law (or jails) in Ireland before the arrival of the Norman invaders. Instead, (as in other ancient pre-piscean systems), the emphasis was on compensating victims of wrong.
I suggest that, now as we leave the Piscean Age and enter the Age of Aquarius, we return to this focus.
In Criminal Law, the focus is on the perpetrator. In pre-piscean systems, the focus is on the victim.
The Criminal Law identifies specific actions, considered to be reprehensible, as offences, and sets out to punish people who take those actions. It requires two elements to be proven: (1) a criminal act and (2) a criminal intent.
Pre-piscean systems, instead, ask "was the complainant harmed by a wrongful act of the accused?" If the answer is "yes," then the victim is to be compensated. Criminal intent does come into it, but is not the primary question. If the wrongful act was intended to harm the victim, rather than an unfortunate result of careless behaviour, then the court could award increased compensation over and beyond the value of the actual harm suffered.
O, the ancient Irish Law did have categories and detailed descriptions of wrongful acts and many rules for calculating the appropriate compensation. But it was not confined, as is the Criminal Law, to specific defined criminal actions, but was always open to consider new forms of wrongful acts. Crimes were not defined by parliament, but wrongful acts were "discovered" by judges who applied the fundamental notions of right and wrong (often embodied in cryptic maxims composed by learned poets) found universally in human consciousness.
If an offender was unable to pay the compensation out of his/ her own resources, his family or close relations could pay it for him (and usually expect to be refunded by the offender). If his people failed to come up with the cash, the offender was bound to the victim, i.e., became his bonded servant. If the victim did not keep slaves himself, he could then sell the offender to a slave-master. A bonded servant could be bought out of slavery by somebody paying the compensation on his behalf.
The ancient world did not have the notion of paid employment. There were free-holders, free tenants, bonded tenants, professionals, tradesmen, and bonded servants. The modern equivalent of the ancient remedy would be a levy on the earnings of the offender or prisons which engage prisoners in wealth-creating employment.
There are two very readable, informative and short, books on the ancient Irish ("Brehon") system:
A Guide to Early Irish Law
The Lost Laws of Ireland
This post has been added to Krunchie's Manifesto.
I suggest that, now as we leave the Piscean Age and enter the Age of Aquarius, we return to this focus.
In Criminal Law, the focus is on the perpetrator. In pre-piscean systems, the focus is on the victim.
The Criminal Law identifies specific actions, considered to be reprehensible, as offences, and sets out to punish people who take those actions. It requires two elements to be proven: (1) a criminal act and (2) a criminal intent.
Pre-piscean systems, instead, ask "was the complainant harmed by a wrongful act of the accused?" If the answer is "yes," then the victim is to be compensated. Criminal intent does come into it, but is not the primary question. If the wrongful act was intended to harm the victim, rather than an unfortunate result of careless behaviour, then the court could award increased compensation over and beyond the value of the actual harm suffered.
O, the ancient Irish Law did have categories and detailed descriptions of wrongful acts and many rules for calculating the appropriate compensation. But it was not confined, as is the Criminal Law, to specific defined criminal actions, but was always open to consider new forms of wrongful acts. Crimes were not defined by parliament, but wrongful acts were "discovered" by judges who applied the fundamental notions of right and wrong (often embodied in cryptic maxims composed by learned poets) found universally in human consciousness.
If an offender was unable to pay the compensation out of his/ her own resources, his family or close relations could pay it for him (and usually expect to be refunded by the offender). If his people failed to come up with the cash, the offender was bound to the victim, i.e., became his bonded servant. If the victim did not keep slaves himself, he could then sell the offender to a slave-master. A bonded servant could be bought out of slavery by somebody paying the compensation on his behalf.
The ancient world did not have the notion of paid employment. There were free-holders, free tenants, bonded tenants, professionals, tradesmen, and bonded servants. The modern equivalent of the ancient remedy would be a levy on the earnings of the offender or prisons which engage prisoners in wealth-creating employment.
There are two very readable, informative and short, books on the ancient Irish ("Brehon") system:
A Guide to Early Irish Law
The Lost Laws of Ireland
This post has been added to Krunchie's Manifesto.
Thursday, 16 October 2014
Causing Bubbles and Crashes
Yesterday's 3% or so drop in many indexes across the world made News Reports wake up to the fact that the markets are falling.
The Reports blame the slump on the Ebola virus and unsatisfacory reports on global economic growth. Alas, they are misinformed. These items in the news may have been an extra sitmulus, but the correction that is already under way. Zero interest and Quantitive Easing pressed prices to their present unsustainable levels, from which they must fall irrespective of economic performance.
However, if the economic report continue bad, the bottom of the correction may be lower than we would otherwise expect. Well-performing economies would arrest the correction at around 1300, whereas economic bad news could do as it did in 2007-8 and send the price crashing through the long-term support line, wiping more than 50% off prices at the apex.
The bubble in share prices reminds me of the bubble in Irish house prices leading up to the banking crisis in 2010. Two decades previously, government tried to stimulate a slack housing market by tax incentives. The incentives worked well, but were not discontinued when the housing market recovered, but continued in place, with the effect of over-stimulation and causing the housing bubble. The present high price of stocks and shares is a bubble: it is the result of Policies brought in by America in December 2008 (QUANTITIVE EASING and ZERO INTEREST RATE POLICY). Intended to rescue the economy, it rescued the Stock Markets. From the point of view of the Stock Markets, it would have been better if the stimulus had been removed as soon as the indexes moved above the long-term Support Line. Instead it was continued in place to cause the bubble.
See my previous post
Market to Bounce or Fall for further discussion.
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